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Replication of Hurlbert & Jetz 2007 hotspot scale-dependence in Iberian birds on a HEALPix-NESTED substrate
https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RA-H2_b7MJxxUg9nJH8McxccG_6Kr3s8xlXQM8vrnamnU/hj2007-iberia-healpix-study
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Hurlbert & Jetz 2007 overlaid expert-drawn bird range maps (Handbook of the Birds of the World; regional atlases) on two structured regional
bird-atlas surveys (Australia, southern Africa) on lat-lon grids at 0.25-8 degrees, circa 2007. This replication deviates on four axes:
- Range-map layer: convex hulls of GBIF occurrences (a surrogate), cross-checked against EU Article 12 expert distribution polygons — not WWF / Handbook expert range maps.
- Atlas layer: modern GBIF occurrence richness (post-2000, citizen-science-dominated for the all-observations strategy) — not a dedicated structured atlas survey with controlled effort.
- Substrate: HEALPix-NESTED equal-area cells — not a lat-lon graticule, removing the cell-area distortion intrinsic to lat-lon grids.
- Region and era: the Iberian peninsula, 2013-2024 GBIF / 2013-2018 Article 12 — not Australia or southern Africa, circa 2007.
The two-basis-of-record design (museum vs all-observations) is an addition to the original: it probes observer-effort sensitivity, a dimension unavailable to Hurlbert & Jetz before citizen-science data dominated occurrence records. The consequences of these deviations for the headline number are quantified in the linked Replication Outcome's Evidence and Limitations fields.
https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RA-H2_b7MJxxUg9nJH8McxccG_6Kr3s8xlXQM8vrnamnU/hj2007-iberia-healpix-study
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Iberian bird occurrence records (Spain, Portugal, Andorra, Gibraltar) were obtained from GBIF as two basis-of-record strategies, each with a citable download DOI: a "museum" strategy (PRESERVED_SPECIMEN + MACHINE_OBSERVATION; GBIF download DOI 10.15468/dl.r8pcat) and an "all-observations" strategy (additionally HUMAN_OBSERVATION, i.e. citizen-science records; GBIF download DOI 10.15468/dl.e9xv7p).
Records were year-split at 2000. Post-2000 occurrences form the atlas-equivalent layer (per-cell richness = number of distinct species observed in the cell). Pre-2000 occurrences form the range-map- equivalent layer (per species, the convex hull of its occurrences, whose cell coverage contributes to per-cell range-map richness). Both layers are binned onto a HEALPix-NESTED ladder at Nside 16, 32, 64, 128, 256 and 512 (cell side approximately 407 km down to 13 km, bracketing Hurlbert & Jetz's 0.25-8 degree range) using the geographic, WGS84-aware healpix-geo library, NESTED ordering throughout.
At each resolution, hotspots are the top-5% richest cells (Hurlbert & Jetz's definition); the headline metric is the symmetric non-overlap of the atlas-derived and range-map-derived hotspot sets. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test on the paired per-cell richness provides the dissolution criterion (statistical indistinguishability at P > 0.10, matching the original's >= 4 degree threshold).
A verification battery tests robustness: a peninsula-only land mask (NaturalEarth 10m); a top-K hotspot-threshold sweep (1-25%); a per-species pre/post convex-hull drift measure (Jaccard distance); an atlas-richness-versus-observer-effort (per-cell record count) correlation; and two tighter range-map surrogates — a concave hull, and EU Birds Directive Article 12 expert distribution polygons (EEA, 2013-2018, 10 km grid, CC-BY 4.0; 260 Iberian breeding species) used as a gold-standard cross-check on the convex-hull surrogate.
The full pipeline is a Snakemake workflow (download -> clean -> analysis -> figures) reproducible from a fresh checkout; the verification battery lives in companion diagnostic notebooks.
https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RA-H2_b7MJxxUg9nJH8McxccG_6Kr3s8xlXQM8vrnamnU/hj2007-iberia-healpix-study
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Scope: the scale-dependence of bird species-richness hotspot identification. The replication tests whether Hurlbert & Jetz's central finding — that range-map-derived richness hotspots disagree with finer-resolution survey-derived hotspots, with the disagreement growing as the grid is refined and dissolving only at coarse grain — re-emerges for a different region (the Iberian peninsula) under modern occurrence data and an equal-area sphere-aware substrate.
In scope: the top-5%-richest-cells hotspot definition; the symmetric non-overlap between range-map-derived and atlas-derived hotspot sets; how that non-overlap varies across a spatial-resolution ladder; and the coarse-grain resolution at which the two richness surfaces become statistically indistinguishable.
Out of scope: Hurlbert & Jetz's secondary findings (per-species range occupancy / commission rates, and protected-area coverage of hotspots); and all non-bird taxa — the original claim and this replication are bird-only.
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Anne Fouilloux
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Replication of Hurlbert & Jetz 2007 hotspot scale-dependence in Iberian birds on a HEALPix-NESTED substrate
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