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The sign and significance match the direction reported in the original paper. The claim is therefore robust to a complete change of analysis software stack (R → Python, lme4/MCMCglmm → statsmodels variational Bayes). " } ], "https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasConfidenceLevel": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/HighConfidence" } ], "https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasEvidenceDescription": [ { "@value": "Mixed-effects logistic GLMM (statsmodels.BinomialBayesMixedGLM, variational Bayes) on 13,614 species × cell observations across 66 Bombus species over North America and Europe yielded sc_TEI_delta = +0.1528 with 95% credible interval [0.116, 0.189], unambiguously positive. A plain logistic regression on the same data gave sc_TEI_delta = +0.2466 (p = 4×10⁻²¹). The hot-edge × thermal-change interaction (sc_TEI_bs × sc_TEI_delta) is also positive at +0.13, consistent with Soroye's prediction that species near their warm range limit are more vulnerable. " } ], "https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasLimitationsDescription": [ { "@value": "(i) Variational Bayes posterior may underestimate credible-interval width by approximately 10–20% relative to full MCMC; tight CI claims would be more conservative under full MCMC. \n(ii) The exact climateLimits[[1]]/[[2]] precomputation script is not in the public Figshare release and was reconstructed from the available R helper scripts; this can shift absolute coefficient magnitudes but does not alter the qualitative direction. \n(iii) The 13,614-row analysis subset is determined by Soroye's filter (cells with valid baseline + recent observations) and inevitably excludes regions of low sampling effort. 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