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This study tests our current understanding of wildfire emissions, chemistry, and health effects as implemented in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. Three-or-more-day-old smoke transported from California and the Pacific Northwest increased CO, PM2.5, and total measured VOCs by factors of 2–8, with hourly maxima of 800 ppb, 120 µg m-3, and 85 ppb, respectively. In contrast, NOx levels were not elevated compared to the urban background. O3 showed a non-monotonic response to wildfire smoke: MDA8 O3 increased under light smoke but flattened or declined when PM2.5 exceeded ~30–40 µg m-3, a feature that GEOS-Chem failed to reproduce. A 2020-style wildfire season recurring annually would yield an excess lifetime cancer risk of 100-in-1 million or approximately 7 times the non-smoke baseline. The noncancer hazard index (HI) would reach 3.0, meaning substantially elevated acute risks during high-smoke periods. About 90 % of cancer risks are from PM2.5, whereas non-cancer risks are dominated by formaldehyde, benzene, acrolein, and acetaldehyde. GEOS-Chem captured major smoke intrusions but underestimated CO, PM2.5, and VOCs by 30–90 %. These model biases propagate to health metrics, with GEOS-Chem underestimating smoke-attributable cancer risk by ~40 % and chronic HI by ~10 times. We attribute the model errors to underpredicted fire emissions and unrepresented VOC chemistry, which together led to an overestimation of OH and insufficient secondary production." } ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label": [ { "@value": "Characterizing emissions, chemistry, and health impacts of aged wildfire smoke in a western US city" } ], "https://schema.org/funder": [ { "@id": "https://ror.org/021nxhr62" } ], "https://w3id.org/fdof/ontology#hasMetadata": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAYnPNgwGmvUoKDk8g_PTczWcWd_zniIRJbQ0UxjrKOlM" } ], "https://www.w3.org/ns/dcat#contactPoint": [ { "@value": "lixu.jin@umontana.edu" } ], "https://www.w3.org/ns/dcat#endDate": [ { "@value": "January 21 2026" } ], "https://www.w3.org/ns/dcat#startDate": [ { "@value": "2025" } ] } ] }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAYnPNgwGmvUoKDk8g_PTczWcWd_zniIRJbQ0UxjrKOlM/provenance", "@graph": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAYnPNgwGmvUoKDk8g_PTczWcWd_zniIRJbQ0UxjrKOlM/assertion", "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo": [ { "@id": "https://orcid.org/0009-0008-8411-2742" } ] } ] }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAYnPNgwGmvUoKDk8g_PTczWcWd_zniIRJbQ0UxjrKOlM/pubinfo", "@graph": [ { "@id": "https://orcid.org/0009-0008-8411-2742", "http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/name": [ { "@value": "Emily Regalado" } ] }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAYnPNgwGmvUoKDk8g_PTczWcWd_zniIRJbQ0UxjrKOlM", "http://purl.org/dc/terms/created": [ { "@value": "2026-05-01T17:51:21.441Z", "@type": "http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#dateTime" } ], "http://purl.org/dc/terms/creator": [ { "@id": "https://orcid.org/0009-0008-8411-2742" } ], "http://purl.org/dc/terms/license": [ { "@id": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" } ], "http://purl.org/nanopub/x/introduces": [ { "@id": "https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-114" } ], "http://purl.org/nanopub/x/wasCreatedAt": [ { "@id": "https://nanodash.knowledgepixels.com/" } ], "https://w3id.org/np/o/ntemplate/wasCreatedFromProvenanceTemplate": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RA7lSq6MuK_TIC6JMSHvLtee3lpLoZDOqLJCLXevnrPoU" } ], "https://w3id.org/np/o/ntemplate/wasCreatedFromPubinfoTemplate": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RACJ58Gvyn91LqCKIO9zu1eijDQIeEff28iyDrJgjSJF8" }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAukAcWHRDlkqxk7H2XNSegc1WnHI569INvNr-xdptDGI" } ], "https://w3id.org/np/o/ntemplate/wasCreatedFromTemplate": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RArM5GTwgxg9qslGX-XiQ-KTTUwdoM0KB1YqmT4GqTizA" } ] }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAYnPNgwGmvUoKDk8g_PTczWcWd_zniIRJbQ0UxjrKOlM/sig", "http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasAlgorithm": [ { "@value": "RSA" } ], "http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasPublicKey": [ { "@value": "MIIBIjANBgkqhkiG9w0BAQEFAAOCAQ8AMIIBCgKCAQEAxzr6UBGMW6c8tegz0babaledWUEQ0PLDE4tp7Iinbe2DZtAtY5JUptKYuStWDZx+QER4808P8dejNWRnBDzgthYJm/AyNSXflHSJhz2+NC+h7RylOLxbwLEQocmyKKiYxa2gT85m6ajVL2M6TnfG67nnK+K2f7iCGL6wYXRITD1q+7+5SWqBdDXIV921W4IKWaD2GJk+NRBoOqQhbsrk8Tn5XsNd7DMYVHk47oMDGbeBnrOIoRPsbBgAcoCsxxhiB9yN6Lf8EUbnlXVEDzJuZk048L1BDZL+6nkA8btTQGP2ijUFWA7rTrod3LjUDQWLZS95njjl867dtmv/znYkzwIDAQAB" } ], "http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignature": [ { "@value": "IMFhKVm+GQkpWrA7cnpcSc0sOaE/oZ7bGiSLlhpgiWkaVGUseL0EBSep2r74/WzTSFjOISJC0REuavoyJl4GSDOt7KxySL7y0iO3i4QJsaS+xxnEjV3CgmdupkiyIASoWOcTkEe0wGftLm6IqZgCbH/GPwlfdUBuI5GMC+cIs3R9/adH6PO+Nk6GZosyBktvqWwId03WcpzDQhmJifcYKfoeadVYLmbwvyiMnIvABt7BnTqYJa9XEGPONA/cgz4CNsHWZsPPg3caBTo8aOQVk27JSkzBBMkPlbe5TxnpLAWHsgirBXu0RSVFMCFbzj24YqayhDm2ICYo/oQ3NrRyHw==" } ], "http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignatureTarget": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAYnPNgwGmvUoKDk8g_PTczWcWd_zniIRJbQ0UxjrKOlM" } ], "http://purl.org/nanopub/x/signedBy": [ { "@id": "https://orcid.org/0009-0008-8411-2742" } ] } ] } ]