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Inter-product wave-exposure comparison at Natura 2000 marine sites across three European storms
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Loveland et al. 2024 ran a coupled wave-circulation model with full versus reduced-order source terms in the Gulf of Mexico and evaluated the internal wave and water-level fields. This study deviates in five ways. (1) Inter-product surrogate: rather than running a coupled model with full versus reduced-order source terms, it compares two operational production wave reanalyses, testing whether the product choice propagates to a downstream biodiversity-exposure metric rather than the source-term physics directly. (2) Domain: European coasts and three extratropical-and-Mediterranean storms, not Gulf of Mexico hurricanes. (3) Downstream metric: biodiversity exposure attribution at Natura 2000 marine sites, not the model's internal fields. (4) Native-grid comparison: each product is sampled on its OWN native grid per site polygon, NOT on a common regridded grid; the inter-product delta therefore conflates resolution and physics, which is intentional because the decision-relevant quantity for a user choosing a product is the bundle of resolution and physics that product delivers, not either factor in isolation. (5) Non-independence: the two products share ERA5 atmospheric forcing (explicitly for the North-West Shelf and Mediterranean products) and partial model lineage (MFWAM for WAVERYS, IBI, and Mediterranean; WAVEWATCH III for the North-West Shelf), so the comparison is conservative — the noise-floor threshold computed under an independence assumption over-estimates the true disagreement floor — and the inter-product signal is best framed as a resolution effect dominated by the fine regional resolving nearshore structure WAVERYS cannot.
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For each storm, the WAVERYS global product and the basin-matched regional CMEMS product (IBI for Xynthia, North-West Shelf for Xaver, Mediterranean for Gloria) are downloaded over the storm window (with 24 hours of pre-storm padding) and a bounding box that fully contains the marine Natura 2000 sites of that region. Each product is kept on its own native grid — WAVERYS at 0.2 degrees, regionals at their native fine resolution — and trimmed to the storm window; the regional is NOT regridded onto the WAVERYS grid (regridding would smooth away the nearshore detail that is the regional product's value and would propagate coastal land-mask NaN onto the coarse grid, dropping about half the marine sites silently). EEA Natura 2000 (End-2024, revision 01) polygons are joined with the Standard Data Form; marine sites intersecting each storm's core region are selected and their Annex I habitat and Annex II species counts attached. For every site and each product, the per-product exposure is the spatial mean over the wet cells whose centres fall inside the polygon of the temporal-maximum significant wave height; sub-grid sites fall back to the single cell containing the polygon centroid, used only if that cell is wet (no nearest-wet-cell search outward — a 1-cell buffer on the 0.2-degree WAVERYS grid is ~22 km and would pull open-ocean values onto sheltered sites). A product that yields no wet value at the site does not resolve the site. Three tiers per site result: both products resolve (continuous inter-product delta), only one resolves (the product choice is categorically decisive — one product places the site in water, the other on land or sub-wave-field), neither resolves (out of scope; reported as a coverage caveat). Each site is weighted by log1p(number of Annex I habitats + number of Annex II species), additive so that bird Special Protection Areas with Annex II species but no Annex I habitat listing are not zero-weighted. The headline statistic is the biodiversity-weighted fraction of resolvable sites where the attribution differs — at sites both products resolve, the absolute peak-Hs delta exceeds the threshold X equal to the joint observational noise floor (root-sum-square of the two products' CMEMS QUID validation RMSE values, approximately 0.4 metres); at sites only one product resolves, the difference is counted as categorically decisive. The result is reported per storm and aggregated, with a threshold sweep over X = 0.2 to 0.8 metres to assess robustness, a per-site biodiversity-versus-delta diagnostic, and the three-way decomposition agree / magnitude-disagree / decisive. The pipeline is a four-notebook Snakemake workflow in a pixi-pinned environment.
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Tested: whether substituting the global WAVERYS wave reanalysis with the matched higher-resolution regional CMEMS reanalysis changes the storm-wave exposure attributed to coastal marine Natura 2000 sites. Scope is three named European storms spanning three physically distinct regimes — Xynthia (2010, French Atlantic / Bay of Biscay), Xaver (2013, southern North Sea), Gloria (2020, north-western Mediterranean) — and the marine Special Areas of Conservation and Special Protection Areas in each storm's landfall region. Exposure is operationalised at the level of the storm-window peak significant wave height attributed to each site polygon, and the claim is tested at the level of the biodiversity-weighted prevalence of inter-product disagreement across sites. Out of scope: storm surge, wave period and direction, duration, any ecological-impact or population modelling, and running a coupled wave-circulation model directly.
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Inter-product wave-exposure comparison at Natura 2000 marine sites across three European storms
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