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Substrate-aware multi-taxon biodiversity-exposure overlay for the 2011 Western Australian Ningaloo Niño event on HEALPix-NESTED nside=128
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Wernberg et al. 2016 sampled the kelp-forest community via diver-transect surveys at 65 reefs across a ~2,000 km tropical-to-temperate transition zone in Western Australia, between 2001 and 2015. This study uses GBIF marine occurrence records as the data source (different sampling — opportunistic occurrence vs structured transect; different scope — broader marine taxa, not just kelp) and a shared HEALPix-NESTED substrate for spatial overlap with the MHW footprint (different aggregation method). The MHW threshold uses a simplified Hobday-style rule (fixed anomaly threshold relative to a 3-year per-DOY climatology + minimum-duration persistence) rather than the canonical Hobday 2016 90th-percentile-per-DOY-over-30-years threshold; the qualitative spatial footprint matches the documented Ningaloo Niño event.
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NOAA OISST v2.1 daily SST for the Western Australian region in 2011 is aggregated onto a HEALPix-NESTED substrate at WGS84 ellipsoidal projection via healpix-geo and healpix-plot. Marine-heatwave detection follows a Hobday-style rule: anomaly above a per-day-of-year reference climatology, fixed temperature threshold, and minimum-duration persistence. The reference climatology is built from yearly OISST files across a multi-year baseline preceding the event year. The HEALPix aggregation weights only OISST sea cells (using OISST's native sea/land mask) so coastal cells are not diluted by land contributions. Marine biodiversity occurrences are pulled from GBIF for the same region and year, restricted to taxonKeys for unambiguously-marine groups (Elasmobranchii, Cephalopoda, Cnidaria, Echinodermata, Porifera) and to HEALPix cells with OISST sea coverage. Each occurrence is mapped to its HEALPix cell and tagged as MHW-exposed if the cell has at least one MHW-day. The full pipeline is reproducible via the repository's environment.yml and Snakefile.
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We test the multi-taxon spatial-temporal correspondence between Wernberg et al.'s documented 2011 Western Australian marine-heatwave regime-shift event and contemporaneous marine biodiversity occurrences in the same region. Scope: extending the original work's kelp-forest evidence to all marine taxa available in GBIF for the same region and year, on a shared HEALPix-NESTED substrate that the climate-event field and the biodiversity field both live on. The original work's mechanistic claims about kelp regime-shift dynamics (range contraction, turf dominance, recovery suppression) are out of scope here — we are not making a new claim about kelp dynamics, only on the broader marine-biodiversity-exposure footprint of the same MHW event.
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