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719 of 765 marine GBIF records (94.0 percent) on MHW-exposed HEALPix cells; 113 unique species exposed
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Wernberg et al. 2016's documented 2011 Western Australian marine-heatwave regime-shift event has a much broader marine-biodiversity exposure footprint than the kelp-forest community alone. On the HEALPix-NESTED nside=128 substrate at WGS84 ellipsoidal projection, 719 of 765 marine GBIF records (94.0 percent) from the WA region during 2011 sat on cells that experienced MHW conditions during the same Jan–Apr 2011 event window, spanning 113 unique species across Elasmobranchii (sharks and rays), Cephalopoda (octopus and squid), Anthozoa (corals), Hydrozoa (jellies), Demospongiae (sponges), Echinoidea (urchins), Ophiuroidea (brittle stars), Asteroidea (sea stars), Bivalvia (clams), Scyphozoa (jellyfish). The shared HEALPix substrate enables direct spatial-temporal overlap of climate-event fields and biodiversity occurrence data on a single equal-area grid without re-projection — the same substrate used by climate models and sphere-aware ML. This is the operational case for HEALPix as the common DGGS for biodiversity-impact attribution: the climate side and the biodiversity side meet on one substrate, and the multi-taxon footprint of the documented event is recoverable from open data without additional sampling.
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The 2011 SST anomaly relative to the 2008–2010 per-DOY mean climatology peaked at +7.20 °C globally over the WA region in Jan–Apr 2011 with mean Feb–Mar anomaly of +2.36 °C — consistent with the documented Ningaloo Niño event peak. Maximum number of MHW-days at a single 0.25° lat-lon cell over Jan–Apr 2011 was 109 of 120 days. After OISST-substrate-aware ocean masking, 765 marine GBIF records were retained out of 3134 phylum/class-restricted hits; the 2369 dropped records were on land or outside the OISST sea cells (terrestrial molluscs from a too-loose phylum filter, GBIF coordinate fuzzing, and records with museum/institution-coded coordinates). Of the 765 ocean records, 719 (94.0 percent)
https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAoW3q1q1Wyt5DXbFl2PI3woyhuYZuU8HYtJ3m0LyrP9M/marine-gbif-outcome
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(i) MHW threshold simplification — fixed +1.5 °C anomaly relative to a 3-year (2008–2010) per-DOY climatology approximates the canonical Hobday 2016 30-year 1991–2020 90th-percentile threshold; the qualitative spatial footprint matches the documented Ningaloo Niño event but the per-cell MHW-day count is approximate.
(ii) Spatial-overlap statistic is exposure-only (records on MHW cells), not causal attribution of biodiversity change to MHW conditions; the linkage to Wernberg et al. 2016 kelp regime shift is via spatial-temporal coincidence with the documented event, not via direct measurement of population change.
(iii) GBIF taxonomic filter restricted to phylum/class taxonKeys for Elasmobranchii, Cephalopoda, Cnidaria, Echinodermata, Porifera; phylum-level Mollusca excluded because it includes terrestrial gastropods and freshwater bivalves. Some marine Mollusca records other than Cephalopoda are therefore not included, which under-counts marine biodiversity exposure modestly.
(iv) GBIF coordinate precision is variable; the OISST sea-mask catches the worst inland-coordinate cases but not all coordinate-precision issues.
(v) Period restricted to Jan–Apr 2011; the actual Ningaloo Niño peak intensity was Feb–Mar 2011 but warm anomalies persisted into mid-2011.
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Anne Fouilloux
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2026-05-08T19:46:11.988Z
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719 of 765 marine GBIF records (94.0 percent) on MHW-exposed HEALPix cells; 113 unique species exposed
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